A source in the Russian Ministry of Defense: “the assault on Mosul was poorly planned.” The operation of the US allies to storm Mosul and Raqqa continues to drag on. The whole of Iraq is burning
On October 17, 2016, the operation began Western coalition to liberate the Iraqi city of Mosul from militants of the Islamic State (IS) banned in Russia. Since November 1, a direct assault on this city has been underway (so far only from the eastern direction). On November 6, the US allies' operation in Syria, “Wrath of the Euphrates,” began. Its goal is to liberate the self-proclaimed capital of ISIS, Raqqa, from terrorists.
To capture Mosul, a motley group was created, which included Iraqi government troops (up to 29 thousand people), Kurdish self-defense forces - Peshmerga (up to 4 thousand people), Shiite and Sunni militias (up to 10 thousand people). Special forces units of the US armed forces also take part in the fighting.
The number of IS militants in Mosul is about 8 thousand people, 2 thousand of which are foreigners, but the Islamists are actively recruiting local residents loyal to the group into the fighting.
The offensive on Mosul is developing in three main directions. In the north, Iraqi government troops operate, the main group of which is located 12 km from the city. From the northeast, they have already captured the El-Zahra quarter and moved 1 km deeper into the city limits. The advance of Iraqi units in this direction is 12 km from the beginning of the operation.
The offensive is more effective in the eastern direction. There, the Iraqi armed forces, together with anti-terrorist service units, national federal police forces and peshmerga, captured the neighborhoods of Hey Aden, El-Khadr, El-Karama, El-Quds and went 1.7 km into the city. However, on November 8, IS troops carried out a counterattack, advanced 1 km and captured the Al-Intisar quarter, pushing a group of Iraqi troops out of the city. Since the beginning of the operation, the advance of government troops from the east has been up to 15 km.
In the southern direction, the combined group of Iraqi armed forces and federal police advanced to a distance of 17 to 35 km. Now units and units of government troops are located 12-15 km from the city limits.
Part of the government forces is making a detour around Mosul from the southwestern direction in order to block the main Mosul-Tell Afar road, which is 9 km away.
In other words, the average rate of advance of the Iraqi military is less than 1 km per day. Such an offensive cannot be called anything other than marking time.
The daily pace of the operation, which can be considered successful, is 15-20 km per day.
The actions of the Iraqi group of troops are supported by the US Special Operations Forces (SSO) (up to 500 people), units of the Turkish armed forces (230 people), and the Italian armed forces (470 people).
During combat operations, multinational coalition forces suffer significant losses.
In the US Special Forces alone, 20 people were killed and 32 were wounded during the operation.
Allied aircraft led by the United States are actively supporting the offensive, striking militant targets in Mosul and its environs. Since the beginning of the operation, more than 400 missile and air strikes have been carried out. 1.5 thousand tons of airborne weapons were dropped on Mosul.
Residential areas and urban infrastructure facilities are being targeted from the air. As a result, he dies civilians. An example of the indiscriminate nature of coalition air strikes is the bombing of a school in the south of Mosul and residential areas in the settlements of Khaznah, Qaraqosh, Karakharab and Ash-Shura on October 21-23, 2016. The strikes killed more than 60 civilians and injured at least 200 people. In total, since the beginning of the operation to storm Mosul, more than a thousand civilians have died from the indiscriminate actions of the coalition air force.
Moreover, the operation plan initially did not provide for humanitarian pauses, and corridors for the exit of residents and the evacuation of the wounded arose spontaneously.
According to the UN, about 48 thousand people have left Mosul since the beginning of the operation. The total number of Iraqi refugees by mid-January 2017 could reach several hundred thousand people (in the future - up to a million displaced people). Residents of Mosul and its environs are sent mainly to refugee camps in Iraq, in the provinces of Ninewa and Anbar, south of Mosul. However, even before the start of the operation (as of November 1), these camps were already more than 50% full.
A significant part of the population (mostly Sunnis and Turkomans) is fleeing the fighting to Syria - in the provinces of Deir ez-Zor, Raqqa and Hasakah - and further to the Turkish province of Hatay. Ankara seeks to prevent refugees from entering its territory.
The humanitarian situation in the city and its surroundings continues to rapidly deteriorate. There are no doctors, medicines, food or basic necessities. The number of people in need of humanitarian assistance in the liberated territories exceeds 50 thousand people. At the same time, international humanitarian organizations are not allowed into the area of operation.
The situation is similar during the assault on Raqqa.
In this case, a motley grouping has also been created. The operation involves the Kurdish YPG self-defense units (up to 25 thousand people), US-controlled Sunni Arab formations “Raqqa Forces Brigade”, “Liberation Brigade”, “Raqqa Martyrs Brigade” and “Free Raqqa Brigade”, as well as the Turkish-controlled “Brigade Self-Defense Turkoman" and "Battalion of Turkoman Martyrs" (total - up to 15.5 thousand fighters).
The US Armed Forces allocated 130 Special Operations Forces personnel.
Special forces are solving problems of targeting Western coalition aircraft at IS targets. They act as advisers to the command of the Syrian Democratic Forces, and also coordinate the actions of Arab, Turkoman and Kurdish troops. In addition, the American command is attracting Kurdish self-defense units to support combat operations.
The opposition directly in Raqqa has about 2 thousand militants, 7 tanks and 12 armored vehicles, 30 carts with heavy machine guns installed on them, 4 multiple launch rocket systems, 15 field artillery guns and mortars, up to 10 anti-aircraft guns and about 7 launchers installations of anti-tank guided missiles. Up to 3 thousand IS militants are operating on the outskirts of their capital.
As of November 14, the formations participating in the operation of the Syrian Democratic Forces are advancing towards Raqqa along the main transport routes from the northern direction - Ain Isa - Raqqa and Beit al-Hisha - Raqqa.
The main task of the group is to blockade the city from the western, northern and eastern directions, thereby creating conditions for the subsequent assault on Raqqa and the cleansing of the city by Arab and Turkoman forces.
In the latest clashes, as well as as a result of US Air Force strikes, IS militants lost 54 people killed and a hundred wounded. One artillery piece and six vehicles with heavy machine guns mounted on them were destroyed. SDF losses were 5 killed and 15 wounded.
Such low losses of the parties are explained by the fact that so far there are only small settlements, which do not represent any strategic interest for IS. These cities and villages were not turned into powerful strongholds. There was no construction of long-term defensive structures in them.
The advancing units and units of the SDF have advanced 15 km practically without serious fighting since the beginning of the operation.
As they approached Raqqa, the terrorists' resistance increased noticeably, and the pace of advance decreased to 2 km per day.
Now the line of combat contact passes at a distance of 20 km from Raqqa. As a result of active opposition from IS formations, the Kurdish self-defense units were forced to suspend the offensive. Now they are repelling enemy counterattacks.
In order to complicate the further advance of SDF units towards Raqqa, IS militants, in small mobile groups, carry out surprise attacks on the enemy and quickly retreat to pre-prepared positions.
As in the case of Mosul, the operation to capture Raqqa does not provide for the introduction of humanitarian pauses and the creation of corridors for the evacuation of the population before the assault begins. If the residents do not leave the city of Raqqa on their own before the start of the assault, they will be considered terrorists and their accomplices.
A similar practice was already used by the Americans in 2004 in Iraq during the capture of the Iraqi city of Fallujah. Then it led to significant casualties among the civilian population, held by the Islamists as a “human shield.”
As the fighting approaches the city, there is an increase in the number of refugees. Over 3 thousand civilians (mostly old people, women and young children) have already fled Raqqa.
The course of the operation to storm Raqqa is negatively affected by the contradictions between the Arab and Turkoman formations, on the one hand, and the Kurdish troops, on the other. They are caused by mutual distrust and reluctance to cede control over the liberated territories to each other.
Liberation from the terrorists of Raqqa by the deadline set by the US military command - mid-December 2016 - is unlikely.
Thus, in the operations to storm Mosul and Raqqa, the fighting became protracted. The attackers are marking time. The number of civilian casualties is growing every day. The humanitarian situation in both cities is rapidly deteriorating. The international coalition led by the United States has not yet demonstrated significant military successes.
Biography:
- military observer for Gazeta.Ru, retired colonel.
Graduated from Minsk Higher Anti-Aircraft Engineering rocket school (1976),
Military Command Academy of Air Defense (1986).
Anti-aircraft commander missile division S-75 (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior officer of the main headquarters of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Chief Operations Directorate (1992-2000).
Graduate of the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist "" (2000-2003), Chief Editor newspapers "Military-Industrial Courier" (2010-2015).
The elections in the United States have passed, there are no more deadlines associated with political tasks, so the operation to capture Mosul has moved into a more leisurely direction determined by military considerations. The pace of the offensive decreased, but at the same time the losses of the attackers decreased.
The overall geometry of the operation remains related to the implementation of the operational environment of Mosul. The group advancing through the desert southwest of Mosul solved its primary problem by reaching the road west of Mosul, after which it began to advance further north to the Tal Afar-Mosul road, which remains the only normal road leading to Mosul, over which the Caliphate is still maintains control. It is worth noting that in addition to the straightforward movement of mechanized groups to the north, there was also movement to the northwest, with the goal of reaching the former Iraqi Air Force base located in the Tal Afar area. Capturing Tal Afar will allow the US and Iraq to link up with the Peshmerga west of Mosul, clear the largest Caliphate-controlled logistics hub in the Mosul area and form the Mosul Pocket. If the resistance is too strong, then the United States may create a small pocket, completing the encirclement of Mosul east of Tal Afar. These tasks are completely solvable for the United States and the Iraqi army, and it is likely that the encirclement will be completed before the new year.
The advance on Mosul from the south continues to involve slow progress along both banks of the Tigris, where the Caliphate is holding out resistance based on small towns and villages that are preventing the two Iraqi mechanized divisions from advancing more rapidly toward Mosul from the south. The lag in the pace of the operation in the south greatly complicates the direct assault on Mosul, since the “blacks” are able to concentrate their forces in one direction and quite effectively defend the eastern part of Mosul. As soon as the Iraqis and Americans are able to reach Mosul from the south, the position of the Caliphate will become dramatically more complicated. The advance of the Peshmerga from the north is also quite leisurely - the Kurds are clearly not in the mood to act as cannon fodder for street fighting in Mosul, therefore they are gradually pushing the Caliphate to the northeastern and northern outskirts of Mosul, creating additional pressure on the “blacks”. It is worth recalling that according to the original Pentagon plan, it was assumed that the assault on the city would begin after it was surrounded on all sides, and an uprising against the Caliphate would be raised inside the city. As it is not difficult to notice, it turned out completely differently - the city was stormed head-on from one direction, some groups were far ahead of others in terms of the pace of advance, the city itself was not yet completely encircled, a potential uprising in Mosul was nipped in the bud after a well-known leak about behind-the-scenes US negotiations with the caliphates. We can say that the operation was not planned in the best way, and the haste associated with the implementation of pre-election political tasks only aggravated the consequences. Now the Americans and their allies have to spend a long time and painfully squeezing out the black abscess from Mosul. You can even wish them luck, they will need it.
In the eastern neighborhoods of Mosul, persistent street fighting continues, with the Iraqi army and security forces gradually advancing, while suffering significant casualties from suicide bombers, snipers and mines. The fighting is already taking place in dense residential areas, in which there are still a lot of civilians caught between two fires. There are no exact data on civilian losses, but according to reports from the parties, they are significant. Otherwise, we see a repetition of the assaults of Ramadi and Fallujah, when the Iraqis had to wash themselves with blood block by block. The question is not whether they will take Mosul - the question is what losses there will be. Over the past 3 days, the attackers lost about 180-220 killed and wounded, about 20 different infantry fighting vehicles and 3 tanks. The Caliphate's losses are about 140-170 killed and wounded. There are contradictions regarding the loss of equipment, since wooden models were discovered that the militants made and passed them off as full-fledged tanks and armored fighting vehicles. It is likely that some of the “destroyed targets” declared by American aviation were wooden mock-ups. In addition to mines and suicide bombers, a big problem is the numerous tunnels built by the “blacks” underground, using which they move their assault groups and supply ammunition to front-line units. Mobile anti-tank groups on carts have been created in the city, which, upon request, move to threatening directions, where attempts of columns of tanks and armored fighting vehicles are observed to advance through urban development and ensure the saturation of combat formations with anti-tank weapons ("Cornets", TOW, RPGs)
After the political goals of the operation left the agenda, the military predicts that it is realistic to completely liberate all of Mosul in 1.5-2 months under an optimistic scenario and 4-5 months under a pessimistic one. Among the problems is the large number of civilians in Mosul, which somewhat constrains the non-stop air and artillery strikes on residential areas. The human shield of Mosul turned out to be even more numerous through to Aleppo and the Iraqis were once again practically faced with the same problem that Assad faces in Aleppo, when terrorists take the population of an entire city hostage. There is no question of completely avoiding civilian casualties. we're talking about about minimizing civilian casualties as much as possible. It is more difficult for Iraqis in this regard.
Such photographs explain better than any sheets of text why the Caliphate must be destroyed.
On the topic of questions - what do suicide bombers look like and can they be distinguished from ordinary people?
All these characters are no longer alive.
Iraqi soldiers with plywood Humvees that ISIS used as decoys for aircraft in Mosul
While the Iraqi military reported the first successes in the assault on Mosul and the “liberation of districts” of the city one after another, the Russian military analyzed the progress of the operation and made its first disappointing conclusions for the Iraqi army. The publication Gazeta.Ru interviewed an unnamed source in the Russian Ministry of Defense on the situation in Mosul, who confirmed to journalists that the coalition’s successes are “nothing more than fiction,” and the assault on Mosul itself could drag on until the spring of 2017.
According to the Russian military, no significant results were achieved in the first three weeks. In fact, preparations for the coalition operation began six months before this date. More than 3 thousand military personnel and service personnel were involved in the liberation of the city from the United States alone.
“All actions are carried out in a hurry, the operation is poorly planned,” notes Gazeta.Ru’s interlocutor. “Everything went well as the coalition forces advanced through the desert areas. However, the very first serious clashes with IS militants in the suburbs of Mosul led to the retreat - almost flight - of the Iraqi elite unit" Only a few buildings on the outskirts of the city were left in the hands of the government army.
The Pentagon has already sent units from the 101st Airborne and 1st Mechanized Divisions of the US Armed Forces into battle. In addition, the Americans are transferring 1.7 thousand paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division to Iraq, the American portal Military.com reported last week, according to Gazeta.Ru’s interlocutor close to the leadership of the Ministry of Defense. According to him, Active participation US troops in the assault on Mosul have already led to heavy losses.
“As a result of the fighting on the outskirts of the city alone, 20 Americans were killed, and the number of wounded reached 32. At the same time, there were those killed as a result of so-called friendly fire - from airstrikes by US Air Force B-52N aircraft,” the Russian military assures.
An attempt to clear the city with the help of massive fire raids and airstrikes only led to massive casualties among the civilian population. “It is already obvious that operations in Mosul and Raqqa cannot have a victorious continuation in such a context. It is obvious that the assault on Mosul will drag on until the spring of next year,” a source in the Ministry of Defense is confident.
However, on Sunday, the US-allied Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the main backbone of which is the Syrian Kurdish militia (YPG), launched an offensive on the second capital of the Islamic State - Raqqa in northern Syria. According to SDF leaders, at least 30 thousand people are taking part in Operation Wrath of the Euphrates. The attack is supported by the US coalition from the air.
But even here the Americans have no serious success. “The offensive on Raqqa has not yet really begun. The real progress of the “Syrian Democratic Forces”, created by the Americans, is noted only where the IS formations, avoiding clashes, retreat on their own,” the source notes. In his opinion, the story is reminiscent of the initial stage of the Vietnam War, when the American leadership hoped to quickly put an end to “a small handful of communists”, and as a result, got stuck in a bloody war for two decades.
"As a result American soldiers they become “cannon fodder”, they die far from their homeland for the interests of big capital, which are alien to ordinary US citizens,” says the interlocutor of Gazeta.Ru.
Taking into account the fact that the government has changed in the USA, and many others are on the agenda important issues, the operation in Mosul will drag on for many months, military expert, reserve colonel Viktor Murakhovsky agrees with this opinion.
He noted that the Americans hoped for a quick capture of the city by the Iraqi forces they had trained, but nothing happened: the first weeks of the offensive showed that the pace was very low and the losses were significant.
“Now everything will depend on what kind of team Trump will form around himself. The main issue is the military establishment.
What is important here is not even who becomes the Minister of Defense. The most interesting thing is who will join the command: which generals, who will take the post of chairman of the Chiefs of Staff Committee, who will become the new chiefs of staff of the army, navy and air force. They are the ones who determine real operations and their concepts,” Murakhovsky emphasized.
Donald Trump will be inaugurated in January. Until this point, current President Barack Obama will continue to serve as head of state.
Trump will also take a lot of time to establish connections, predicts Vladimir Avatkov, associate professor at the Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and director of the Center for Oriental Studies.
“Hillary Clinton had great contacts with Saudi Arabia and with individual leaders in Turkey. Donald Trump does not have such significant contacts. Now he will build a fundamentally new line in relation to the countries of the region. He has repeatedly emphasized a certain skepticism regarding the policy of the previous administration regarding the Middle East, so we should expect certain changes in this direction, but this will take time,” the orientalist said.
On Tuesday, Gazeta.Ru learned that the aircraft carrier group that arrived on the shores of Syria Northern Fleet The Russian Navy, led by the heavy aircraft-carrying cruiser Admiral Kuznetsov and the heavy nuclear missile cruiser“Peter the Great” is preparing to strike militant positions in the Aleppo area “in the next 24 hours.” It was planned to use the latest weapons, including Caliber cruise missiles.
However, the blow has not yet been struck. In an interview with Gazeta.Ru, First Deputy Head of the Federation Council Committee on Defense and Security Franz Klintsevich called this “complementary behavior Russian leadership in the context of Donald Trump becoming president." “This is a signal of the need to conduct consultations,” the senator explained.
Donald Trump himself is committed to cooperation, says senior researcher at the Institute of World Economics and international relations RAS, author of the book “Understanding Russia in the USA. Images and myths" Victoria Zhuravleva.
She noted that the Kerry-Lavrov diplomatic channel, which was created on the initiative of Barack Obama, did not lead to a solution to the conflict. There is no agreement between Moscow and Washington at the level of military structures. That is why the Syrian conflict is turning into an increasingly greater disaster, Zhuravleva explained.
All interlocutors of Gazeta.Ru agree that the new president will be able to take control of the security forces. However, the important point is that Trump has set a clear goal: fighting terrorism and reducing US foreign involvement.
“How he will find this balance between these two things is a very serious question, which will largely depend on the team that Trump will assemble after he takes office,” Zhuravleva concluded.
In turn, Gazeta.Ru’s interlocutor at the Ministry of Defense expressed hope that in the near future US policy in the Middle East will change dramatically due to the fiasco of the Americans and their trained allies in Mosul.
According to the Russian military, international terrorism in Syria and Iraq can only be defeated together, effectively coordinating our actions with close cooperation of all interested parties. “We remind our colleagues from the United States of this,” the interlocutor concluded.
The Iraqi army and Kurdish militias - about 30 thousand people - are working together to advance from the south and east of Mosul.
About 4 thousand fighters are clearing villages occupied by ISIS. As part of the agreement with the Iraqi federal government, the Kurds will support Iraqi security forces, but will not enter the city.
The exact number of terrorists is unknown—the figures range from 3 to 9 thousand, but no one actually counted them. The head of the Kurdish General Staff, Jamal Iminiki, said that there may be militants in Mosul who were previously driven out of the cities of Ramadi, Tikrit and Baiji: “It is impossible to make predictions... IS forces in Mosul are significant.”
The population was also not counted. It is known that before the war, about 1.5 million people lived in Mosul. According to other sources, IS holds in the city. Perhaps the organizers of the large-scale operation are counting on a mass exodus of militants. The logic of military planning here clearly gives way to the urgent need to demonstrate US strength on the eve of the presidential election.
I believe that the coalition clearly underestimates the enemy and overestimates its own capabilities. However, in case of failure, Baghdad and Washington will traditionally begin to prepare another large-scale operation against the Islamic State.
And it is unlikely that the capture of Mosul will correct the views of our partners on Russia’s fight against terrorists in Syrian Aleppo.
© AP Photo/Bram Janssen
© AP Photo/Bram Janssen
Fortification system
Mosul is located on the Tigris River, 396 km northwest of Baghdad. IS militants captured this second largest city in Iraq in 2014, and have done a lot to strengthen their “capital”. A significant arsenal, a system of long-term firing points, concrete bunkers and urban development with a civilian population of two million, they turned Mosul into a “tough nut to crack.”
The core of IS units are former soldiers of Saddam Hussein's army, who have special training and combat experience. Previously, they had already defeated superior Iraqi security forces, and a year earlier in the same Mosul they captured 2,300 American armored vehicles.
In May 2015, 30 thousand IS fighters in the Iraqi provinces of Ninewa and Anbar pushed aside the well-armed 190 thousand government army, and a repeated demonstration of superiority in October 2016 cannot be ruled out.
Air support for the advancing coalition forces is objectively limited by the “human shield” of the civilian population. Carpet bombing is out of the question, and there won’t be enough rockets for every ISIS “rat hole” in Mosul.
It is unclear who will be entrusted with the direct liberation of city blocks, where every house will have to pay. Artillery and armored vehicles will not help there. If Iraqi security forces enter Mosul, success is not certain. American special forces in an unfamiliar eastern city will be an equally convenient target. IS militants are mobile, well-armed, and sophisticated in their mining of the combat zone.
Significant losses are guaranteed; Americans don’t fight like that. Powers people's militia limited.
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan recalled that his country also has the right to participate in the liberation of Iraqi Mosul from IS. Turkish authorities. This stirs up the intrigue, but does not yet strengthen the liberation group.
Is there a military solution in principle? An assault, siege or blockade of Mosul could drag on for many months and lead to hundreds of thousands of civilian casualties.
Humanitarian despair
Against the background of the military operation in Mosul, a large-scale humanitarian crisis is unfolding, the elimination of which requires considerable resources and efforts of the international community.
The representative of the Iraqi branch of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), Sarah al-Zawkari, believes that up to 1 million citizens may leave Mosul. It is likely that many of them will join refugee camps in the EU (in transit through Turkey). The humanitarian situation in Iraq is extremely difficult; already today, more than 3 million displaced people are struggling to survive here, in need of basic necessities: food, water, medicine, a roof over their heads.
Media: The European Union will call on Syria and its allies to appear before the ICCIn a statement, ministers will condemn the "catastrophic escalation" in eastern Syrian Aleppo and say airstrikes on hospitals and civilians "may amount to war crimes," according to Reuters.The Office of the High Commissioner for Affairs in Geneva expressed similar concerns. Will these organizations have to go to the International Criminal Court to hold the inhumane American coalition accountable, similar to the Syrian issue?
The Middle East is easy to unbalance and very difficult to return to its original state.
