A source in the Russian Defense Ministry: "the assault on Mosul was planned ineptly." The operation of the US allies to storm Mosul and Raqqa continues to drag on The whole of Iraq is on fire
On October 17, 2016, the operation began Western coalition to liberate the Iraqi city of Mosul from militants of the Islamic State (IS) banned in Russia. Since November 1, a direct assault on this city has been underway (so far only from the eastern direction). On November 6, the operation of the US allies in Syria "Wrath of the Euphrates" began. Its goal is to liberate the self-proclaimed capital of ISIS, Raqqa, from terrorists.
To seize Mosul, a motley group was created, which included Iraqi government troops (up to 29 thousand people), Kurdish self-defense forces - the Peshmerga (up to 4 thousand people), Shiite and Sunni militias (up to 10 thousand people). Special forces units of the US armed forces also take part in the hostilities.
The number of IS militants in Mosul is about 8,000 people, 2,000 of which are foreigners, but the Islamists are actively recruiting local residents loyal to the group to fight.
The attack on Mosul is developing along three main lines. In the north, Iraqi government troops are operating, the main grouping of which is located 12 km from the city. From the northeast, they have already captured the El-Zahra quarter and have penetrated 1 km into the city limits. The advancement of Iraqi units and subunits in this direction is 12 km from the beginning of the operation.
The offensive is more effective in the eastern direction. There, the Iraqi armed forces, together with the formations of the anti-terrorist service, the forces of the national federal police and the Peshmerga, captured the quarters of Hay-Aden, El-Khadr, El-Karama, Al-Quds and went deep into the city for 1.7 km. However, on November 8, ISIS troops launched a counterattack, advanced 1 km and captured the El Intisar quarter, pushing the group of Iraqi troops out of the city. From the beginning of the operation, the advance of government troops from the east amounted to 15 km.
In the southern direction, the joint grouping of the armed forces and the federal police of Iraq advanced to a distance of 17 to 35 km. Now units and subunits of government troops are located 12-15 km from the city limits.
Part of the forces of government troops makes a detour of Mosul from the south-west in order to block the main road Mosul - Tell Afar, which is 9 km away.
In other words, the average rate of advance of the Iraqi military is less than 1 km per day. Such an offensive cannot be called otherwise than marking time.
The daily pace of the operation, which can be considered successful, is 15-20 km per day.
The actions of the Iraqi grouping of troops directly are supported by the US Special Operations Forces (SOF) (up to 500 people), units of the Turkish armed forces (230 people), and the Italian armed forces (470 people).
In the course of hostilities, the multinational coalition forces suffer significant losses.
Only in the US SOF during the operation, 20 people were killed and 32 were injured.
Allied aviation, led by the United States, actively supports the offensive, striking militant targets in Mosul and its environs. Since the beginning of the operation, more than 400 missile and air strikes have already been delivered. 1.5 thousand tons of aircraft weapons were dropped on Mosul.
Residential areas and urban infrastructure facilities are exposed to air strikes. As a result, civilians are dying. The bombing of a school in the south of Mosul and residential areas of the settlements of Khazna, Karakosh, Karakharab and Ash-Shura on October 21-23, 2016 can serve as an example of the non-selectivity of coalition air force strikes. During the strikes, more than 60 civilians were killed and at least 200 people were injured. In total, since the beginning of the operation to storm Mosul, more than a thousand civilians have died from the indiscriminate actions of the coalition air force.
Moreover, the operation plan did not initially provide for humanitarian pauses, and the corridors for the exit of residents and the evacuation of the wounded arose spontaneously.
According to the UN, about 48,000 people have left Mosul since the start of the operation. The total number of Iraqi refugees by mid-January 2017 may reach several hundred thousand people (up to a million displaced persons in the future). Residents of Mosul and its environs are sent mainly to refugee camps in Iraq, in the provinces of Ninewa and Anbar south of Mosul. However, even before the start of the operation (as of November 1), these camps were already more than 50% full.
A significant part of the inhabitants (mostly Sunnis and Turkomans) flee from the fighting to Syria - in the provinces of Deir ez-Zor, Raqqa and Hasaka - and further to the Turkish province of Hatay. Ankara seeks to prevent refugees from entering its territory.
The humanitarian situation in the city and its environs continues to deteriorate rapidly. There are no doctors, medicines, food and basic necessities. The number of people in need of humanitarian assistance in the liberated territories exceeds 50,000 people. At the same time, international humanitarian organizations are not allowed into the operation area.
The situation develops in a similar way during the assault on Raqqa.
In this case, a motley grouping is also created. The Kurdish YPG self-defense units (up to 25,000 people), the US-controlled formations of the Sunni Arabs Raqqa Forces Brigade, the Liberation Brigade, the Raqqa Martyrs Brigade and the Free Raqqa Brigade, as well as the Turkish-controlled Raqqa Force Brigade, are involved in the operation. self-defense Turkoman "and" Battalion of martyrs Turkoman "(total - up to 15.5 thousand fighters).
130 Special Operations Forces personnel have been allocated from the US armed forces.
Special Forces members solve the tasks of directing Western coalition aviation to IS targets. They act as advisers to the command of the "Syrian Democratic Forces", and also coordinate the actions of the Arab, Turkoman and Kurdish detachments. In addition, the American command involves Kurdish self-defense units in combat operations.
Opposing directly in Raqqa has about 2 thousand militants, 7 tanks and 12 armored vehicles, 30 automobile "carts" with large-caliber machine guns mounted on them, 4 multiple launch rocket systems, 15 field artillery guns and mortars, up to 10 anti-aircraft installations and about 7 launchers installations of anti-tank guided missiles. Up to 3,000 IS fighters operate on the outskirts of their capital.
As of November 14, the formations participating in the operation of the Syrian Democratic Forces are moving towards Raqqa along the main transport routes from the northern direction - Ain Isa - Raqqa and Beit al-Hisha - Raqqa.
The main task of the group is to block the city from the western, northern and eastern directions, thereby creating conditions for the subsequent assault on Raqqa and the cleansing of the city by the forces of Arab and Turkoman formations.
In recent clashes, as well as as a result of US Air Force strikes, IS militants lost 54 people killed and a hundred wounded. One artillery gun and six vehicles with large-caliber machine guns mounted on them were destroyed. SDF losses - 5 people killed and 15 wounded.
Such low losses of the parties are explained by the fact that only small settlements are still in the offensive zone of the SDF, which do not represent any strategic interest for the ISIS. These towns and villages were not turned into powerful strongholds. They did not build long-term defensive structures.
The advancing units and units of the SDS have advanced 15 km since the beginning of the operation, practically without serious fighting.
As they approached Raqqa, the resistance of the terrorists increased noticeably, and the rate of advance decreased to 2 km per day.
Now the line of contact passes at a distance of 20 km from Raqqa. As a result of the active opposition of the ISIS formations, the Kurdish self-defense units were forced to suspend the offensive. Now they reflect enemy counterattacks.
In order to impede the further advance of the SDF units to Raqqa, IS militants in small mobile groups carry out surprise attacks on the enemy and quickly retreat to previously prepared positions.
As in the case of Mosul, the operation to take Raqqa does not provide for the introduction of humanitarian pauses and the creation of corridors for the evacuation of the population before the start of the assault. If the inhabitants themselves do not leave the city of Rakku by the beginning of the assault, then they will be considered as terrorists and their accomplices.
A similar practice was already used by the Americans in 2004 in Iraq during the capture of the Iraqi city of Fallujah. Then it led to significant casualties among the civilian population, held by the Islamists as a "human shield".
As the fighting approaches the city, an increase in the number of refugees is noted. More than 3,000 civilians have already left Raqqa (mainly the elderly, women and young children).
The contradictions between the Arab and Turkoman formations, on the one hand, and the Kurdish detachments, on the other, have a negative impact on the course of the operation to storm Raqqa. They are caused by mutual distrust and unwillingness to cede control over the liberated territories to each other.
The release from the terrorists of Raqqa by the deadline set by the US military command - mid-December 2016 - is unlikely.
Thus, in the operations to storm Mosul and Raqqa, the fighting took on a protracted character. The attackers are marking time. The number of civilian casualties is growing every day. The humanitarian situation in both cities is deteriorating rapidly. No significant military successes have yet been demonstrated by the US-led international coalition.
Biography:
- military observer of Gazeta.Ru, retired colonel.
Graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976),
Military Command Academy of Air Defense (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of an anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior officer of the main headquarters of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operational Directorate (1992-2000).
Graduate of the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Browser "" (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the newspaper "Military Industrial Courier" (2010-2015).
The US elections are over, there are no more political deadlines, so the operation to take Mosul has moved into a more leisurely course determined by military considerations. The pace of the offensive slowed down, but at the same time, the losses of the attackers also decreased.
The overall geometry of the operation is still linked to the implementation of the operational environment of Mosul. The group advancing through the desert southwest of Mosul solved the first problem by reaching the road west of Mosul, after which they began to move further north to the Tal Afar - Mosul road, which remains the only normal road leading to Mosul, over which the Caliphate is still retains control. It is worth noting that in addition to the rectilinear movement of mechanized groups to the north, there were also movements to the northwest, in order to reach the former Iraqi Air Force base located in the Tal Afar region. Capturing Tal Afar would allow the US and Iraq to link up with the Peshmerga west of Mosul, clear the Caliphate's largest logistical hub in the Mosul area, and form the Mosul Pocket. If the resistance is too strong, then the US may go for the formation of a small pocket, completing the encirclement of Mosul to the east of Tal Afar. These tasks are quite solvable for the US and the Iraqi army, and it is quite likely that the encirclement will be completed before the new year.
The attack on Mosul from the south continues to involve a slow advance along both banks of the Tigris, where the Caliphate is resisting by relying on small towns and villages that impede a more rapid advance of two Iraqi mechanized divisions towards Mosul from the south. The lagging pace of the operation in the south makes a direct assault on Mosul very difficult, since the "blacks" get the opportunity to concentrate their forces in one direction and effectively defend the eastern part of Mosul. As soon as the Iraqis and the Americans are able to reach Mosul from the south, the position of the Caliphate will become much more complicated. The advance of the Peshmerga from the north is also quite unhurried - the Kurds are clearly not in the mood to act as cannon fodder for street fighting in Mosul, therefore they are gradually pushing the Caliphate to the northeastern and northern outskirts of Mosul, creating additional pressure on the "blacks". It is worth recalling that according to the original plan of the Pentagon, it was assumed that the assault on the city would be launched after it was surrounded on all sides, and an uprising against the Caliphate would be raised inside the city. As you can see, it turned out quite differently - the city is being stormed head-on from one direction, some groups are far ahead of others in terms of the pace of advancement, the city itself is not yet completely surrounded, a potential uprising in Mosul was nipped in the bud after a well-known leak about behind-the-scenes US negotiations with calipers. We can say that the operation was not planned in the best way, and the haste associated with the implementation of pre-election political tasks only exacerbated the consequences. Now the Americans and their allies have to long and painfully squeeze out the black abscess from Mosul. You can even wish them good luck, they will need it.
Intense street fighting continues in the eastern neighborhoods of Mosul, with the Iraqi army and security forces gradually moving forward, while suffering significant losses from suicide bombers, snipers and mines. The fighting is already going on in dense residential areas, in which there is still a mass of civilians caught between two fires. There is no exact data on civilian losses, but according to reports from the parties, they are significant. Otherwise, we see a repetition of the assaults on Ramadi and Fallujah, when the Iraqis had to take quarter after quarter, washing themselves with blood. The question is not whether they will take Mosul - the question is what will be the losses. Over the past 3 days, the attackers have lost about 180-220 killed and wounded, about 20 different armored personnel carriers and 3 tanks. Caliphate losses are about 140-170 killed and wounded. There are contradictions regarding the loss of equipment, since wooden mock-ups were discovered that the militants made and passed them off as full-fledged tanks and armored combat vehicles. It is likely that some of the "destroyed targets" declared by American aviation are such wooden mock-ups. In addition to mines and suicide bombers, the numerous tunnels laid underground by the "blacks" are a big problem, using which they move their assault groups and supply ammunition to front-line units. Mobile anti-tank groups on carts have been created in the city, which, upon request, move to threatening directions, where attempts are being made to move columns of tanks and armored combat vehicles through urban areas and ensure the saturation of combat formations with anti-tank weapons ("Cornets", TOW, RPG)
After the political goals of the operation are off the agenda, the military predicts that it is realistic to completely liberate all of Mosul in 1.5-2 months under an optimistic scenario and 4-5 months under a pessimistic one. Among the problems is the large number of civilians in Mosul, which somewhat deters non-stop air and artillery strikes on residential areas. Mosul's human shield proved to be even more numerous through Aleppo, and the Iraqis once again faced in practice the same problem that Assad faces in Aleppo, when terrorists take the population of an entire city hostage. There is no question of completely avoiding civilian casualties, it is about minimizing civilian casualties as much as possible. It is more difficult for the Iraqis in this regard.
Such photographs explain better than any sheets of text why the Caliphate must be destroyed.
On the topic of questions - what do suicide bombers look like and can they be distinguished from ordinary people?
All of these characters are no longer alive.
Iraqi soldiers at plywood Humvees used by ISIS as decoys for aircraft in Mosul
While the Iraqi military reported on the first successes in the storming of Mosul and the "liberation of districts" of the city one by one, the Russian military analyzed the course of the operation and drew their first disappointing conclusions for the Iraqi army. Gazeta.Ru interviewed an unnamed source in the Russian Defense Ministry on the situation in Mosul, who confirmed to reporters that the coalition's successes are "nothing more than fiction", and the assault on Mosul itself could drag on until the spring of 2017.
According to the Russian military, no significant results were achieved in the first three weeks. In fact, preparations for the operation of the coalition began six months before this date. More than 3,000 servicemen and service personnel are involved in the liberation of the city from the United States alone.
“All actions are carried out in a hurry, the operation is planned incompetently,” notes the interlocutor of Gazeta.Ru. - Everything was going well as the coalition forces advanced through the desert areas. However, the very first serious clashes with IS militants in the suburbs of Mosul led to the retreat - almost flight - of the Iraqi elite unit. Only a few buildings recaptured from terrorists on the outskirts of the city remained in the hands of the government army.
The Pentagon has already deployed units from the 101st Airborne and 1st Mechanized Divisions of the US Armed Forces into battle. In addition, the Americans are deploying 1,700 paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division to Iraq, the American portal Military.com reported last week, according to a Gazeta.Ru source close to the leadership of the Ministry of Defense. According to him, the active participation of US military personnel in the storming of Mosul has already led to heavy losses.
“Only as a result of the fighting on the outskirts of the city, 20 Americans were killed, and the number of wounded reached 32. At the same time, there are those who died as a result of the so-called friendly fire - from air strikes by US Air Force B-52N aircraft,” the Russian military assures.
An attempt to clean up the city with the help of massive fire raids and air strikes only led to mass casualties among the civilian population. “It is already clear that operations in Mosul and Raqqa in such a context cannot continue victoriously. Obviously, the assault on Mosul will drag on until the spring of next year,” a source in the Defense Ministry is sure.
However, on Sunday, the US-allied Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) alliance, whose main backbone is the Syrian Kurdish militia (YPG), launched an offensive against the second capital of the ISIS - Raqqa in northern Syria. According to SDF leaders, at least 30,000 people are taking part in Operation Wrath of the Euphrates. The attack is supported by the US coalition from the air.
But here, too, the Americans have no serious successes. “The attack on Raqqa has not really begun yet. The real progress of the “Syrian Democratic Forces”, created by the Americans, is noted only where the formations of the IS, avoiding clashes, retreat on their own,” the source notes. In his opinion, history is reminiscent of the initial stage of the Vietnam War, when the American leadership hoped to quickly put an end to "a small handful of communists", and as a result got stuck in a bloody war for two decades.
“As a result, American soldiers become cannon fodder, they die far from their homeland for the interests of big capital that are alien to ordinary US citizens,” says Gazeta.Ru's interlocutor.
Taking into account the fact that the government has changed in the United States, and there are many other important issues on the agenda, the operation in Mosul will drag on for many months, a military expert, reserve colonel Viktor Murakhovsky, agrees with this opinion.
He noted that the Americans hoped for a quick capture of the city by the Iraqi forces trained by them, but nothing happened: the first weeks of the offensive showed that the pace was very low, and the losses were significant.
“Now everything will depend on what kind of team Trump will form around him. The main issue is in the military establishment.
Here it is not even important who will become the Minister of Defense. The most interesting thing is who will enter the command: which generals, who will take the post of chairman of the committee of chiefs of staff, who will become the new chiefs of staff of the army, navy and air force. It is they who determine the real operations, their concepts,” Murakhovsky emphasized.
Donald Trump's inauguration will take place in January. Until that moment, the duties of the head of state will continue to be performed by the current President Barack Obama.
Trump will also take a lot of time to establish ties, predicts Vladimir Avatkov, associate professor at the Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, director of the Center for Oriental Studies.
“Hillary Clinton had great contacts with Saudi Arabia and with individual leaders in Turkey. Donald Trump has no such significant contacts. Now he will build a fundamentally new line in relation to the countries of the region. He has repeatedly emphasized a certain skepticism regarding the policy of the previous administration regarding the Middle East, so we should expect certain changes in this direction, but this takes time,” the orientalist said.
On Tuesday, Gazeta.ru learned that the aircraft carrier group of the Northern Fleet of the Russian Navy, which arrived on the coast of Syria, led by the heavy aircraft-carrying cruiser Admiral Kuznetsov and the heavy nuclear-powered missile cruiser Pyotr Veliky, is preparing to strike at positions "in the next 24 hours" militants in the Aleppo region. It was planned to use the latest weapons, including Caliber cruise missiles.
So far, however, no blow has been struck. In an interview with Gazeta.ru, Frants Klintsevich, First Deputy Head of the Federation Council Committee on Defense and Security, called this "complementary behavior of the Russian leadership in the context of Donald Trump becoming president." "This is a signal that consultations are needed," the senator explained.
Donald Trump himself is also set on cooperation, says senior researcher at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, author of the book “Understanding Russia in the USA. Images and myths "Victoria Zhuravleva.
She noted that the Kerry-Lavrov diplomatic channel, which was created on the initiative of Barack Obama, did not lead to a solution to the conflict. At the level of military structures, there is no agreement between Moscow and Washington. That is why the Syrian conflict is turning into an increasing catastrophe, Zhuravleva explained.
All interlocutors of Gazeta.Ru agree that the new president will be able to take control of the security forces. However, the important point is that Trump has set a clear goal: combating terrorism and reducing US external involvement.
“How he will find this balance between these two things is a very serious question, which will largely depend on the team that Trump will assemble after he takes office,” Zhuravleva concluded.
In turn, Gazeta.ru's interlocutor in the Ministry of Defense expressed hope that in the near future US policy in the Middle East would change dramatically due to the fiasco of the Americans and the allies they trained in Mosul.
According to the Russian military, international terrorism in Syria and Iraq can only be defeated by working together, effectively coordinating their actions with close cooperation of all interested parties. “We remind our colleagues from the United States of this,” the interlocutor concluded.
The Iraqi army and the Kurdish militias - about 30,000 people - are advancing in cooperation from the south and east of Mosul.
About 4,000 fighters are clearing IS-occupied villages. As part of an agreement with the Iraqi federal government, the Kurds will support the Iraqi security forces, but will not enter the city.
The exact number of terrorists is unknown - the figures are from 3 to 9 thousand, no one really counted them. The head of the Kurdish General Staff, Jamal Iminiki, said that there may be militants in Mosul who were previously driven out of the cities of Ramadi, Tikrit and Baiji: "It is impossible to make predictions ... ISIS forces in Mosul are significant."
The population was also not counted. It is known that before the war, about 1.5 million people lived in Mosul. According to other sources, IS is holding . Perhaps the organizers of a large-scale operation are counting on a mass exodus of militants. The logic of military planning here clearly gives way to the urgent need to demonstrate the strength of the United States on the eve of the presidential election.
I believe that the coalition clearly underestimates the enemy and overestimates its own capabilities. However, in case of failure, Baghdad and Washington will traditionally start preparing another large-scale operation against ISIS.
And the capture of Mosul is unlikely to correct the views of our partners on Russia's fight against terrorists in Syrian Aleppo.
© AP Photo / Bram Janssen
© AP Photo / Bram Janssen
Fortification system
Mosul is located on the Tigris River, 396 km northwest of Baghdad. This second largest city in Iraq, IS militants captured in 2014, and did a lot to strengthen their "capital". A significant arsenal, a system of long-term gun emplacements, concrete bunkers, and urban development with two million civilians have turned Mosul into a "tough nut".
The basis of the IS units are former soldiers of the army of Saddam Hussein, who have special training and combat experience. Previously, they had already smashed the superior security forces of Iraq, and a year earlier, in the same Mosul, they captured 2,300 American armored vehicles.
In May 2015, 30,000 IS fighters in the Iraqi provinces of Ninewa and Anbar pushed back a well-armed 190,000-strong government army, and a second demonstration of superiority in October 2016 cannot be ruled out.
Air support for the advancing coalition troops is objectively limited by the "human shield" of the civilian population. Carpet bombing is out of the question, and there aren't enough missiles for every IS rat hole in Mosul.
It is not clear who will be entrusted with the immediate release of city blocks, where it will be necessary for each house. Artillery and armored vehicles will not help there. If Iraqi security forces enter Mosul, success is not obvious. American special forces in an unfamiliar eastern city will be an equally convenient target. IS fighters are mobile, well-armed, and subtly mine the war zone.
Significant losses are guaranteed, the Americans do not fight like that. The forces of the people's militia are limited.
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan recalled that his country also has the right to participate in the liberation of Iraqi Mosul from ISIS. Turkish authorities. This spins the intrigue, but so far does not strengthen the grouping of liberators.
Is there a military solution, in principle? An assault, siege or blockade of Mosul could drag on for many months, and lead to hundreds of thousands of civilian casualties.
Humanitarian desperation
Against the backdrop of a military operation in Mosul, a large-scale humanitarian crisis is unfolding, the elimination of which will require considerable funds and efforts by the international community.
The representative of the Iraqi branch of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) Sarah al-Zawkari believes that up to 1 million citizens may leave Mosul. It is likely that many of them will join refugee camps in the EU (through transit through Turkey). The humanitarian situation in Iraq is extremely difficult, already today more than 3 million displaced people are barely surviving here, in need of basic necessities: food, water, medicine, a roof over their heads.
Media: EU will call on Syria and its allies to appear before the ICCAccording to Reuters, in a statement, the ministers will condemn the "catastrophic escalation" in Syria's eastern Aleppo and say air strikes on hospitals and civilians "could amount to war crimes."Similar concern was expressed by the Office of the High Commissioner for Affairs in Geneva. Won't these organizations have to turn to the International Criminal Court to call the inhuman American coalition to account, by analogy with the Syrian problem?
The Middle East is easy to unbalance, and very difficult to bring back to its original state.
