Crisis d. World economic crises and their consequences on market and transition economies

24.06.2023 | For children

At the end of November 2014, Russia's GDP went into negative territory for the first time since 2009. The drop was 0.5%, the Ministry of Economic Development reported on December 29. This is not the only anti-record of the year - on December 15, the ruble to dollar exchange rate fell by more than 8.5% in a few hours. By that time, the Russian currency had almost doubled in value since the beginning of the year. The previous anti-record for the ruble was recorded in January 1999. The devaluation was preceded by a decline in oil prices for five months, tightening EU and US sanctions and Russian “anti-sanctions”. The situation was aggravated by the decision of the OPEC countries not to reduce their oil production quota. After this, commodity prices collapsed, capital outflow and inflation accelerated. Gold and foreign exchange reserves continued to be spent, and the president's approval rating continued to rise. RBC decided to demonstrate how the situation changed throughout the year using nine graphs as an example.

This year, the Ministry of Economic Development revised the official inflation forecast three times. The initial forecast by the end of the year was almost doubled - from 4,8 before 9% . In reality, as Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said on December 25, “by the year, most likely, it will be somewhere 11,5% , maybe a little more."

If at the beginning of the year the economic bloc of the government and banks generally agreed that over 12 months GDP would increase by 2-3% , then already in the spring even minimal growth was called into question. The reasons for the decline in GDP are a decrease in investment inflows due to the situation in Ukraine, a significant slowdown in the growth of industrial and trade inventories, and low domestic demand.

Until mid-2014, oil prices remained stable within $105-115 per barrel. In September, quotes went down and by December fell to $60/bbl. In the most pessimistic forecasts, analysts predicted a price decline to $85/bbl. In addition, the Russian budget for 2015 is based on the average annual price of Urals oil in $80/bbl .

Throughout the first half of the year, the number of Russians approving of Vladimir Putin’s performance as president has been growing. In June, the president's ratings broke their five-year record. This was preceded by Russia's Olympic successes and the annexation of Crimea. Thanks to patriotic enthusiasm and mobilization against “enemies,” the president’s rating soared to a new high in October - 88% .

The volume of gold and foreign exchange savings in Russia exceeded the mark of $500 billion in January. As it turned out, only for a few days. During the year, Russia lost almost a fifth of its gold and foreign exchange reserves and reached a four-year low in this indicator. In this case, mostly foreign currency was spent. The reason was the Central Bank's foreign exchange interventions designed to support the ruble.

During the first half of the year, the ruble behaved as stable as oil prices. Since the middle of the year, its exchange rate to leading world currencies began to decline along with oil prices. On November 10, the Central Bank canceled the currency corridor and let the ruble float freely. The uncontrolled fall led to the fact that on December 16, the euro cost more than 100 rub., dollar - more 80 rub .

Imports began to decline in the second half of the year, after the introduction of EU and US sanctions. Exports behaved in a similar way - their decline slowed down only against the background of the depreciation of the ruble in the last months of the year. Experts explain the decrease in imports by the crisis in Ukraine, sanctions and a general deterioration in the investment climate, exports - political reasons and the fall in oil and gas prices.

Citizens' incomes throughout almost the entire year were close to last year's values. But the December collapse of the ruble changed the situation. Real disposable income, according to Rosstat, in January-November 2014 decreased by 0,3% . Real incomes of citizens will continue to decline in 2015, as expected, by 5-7% , they will be depreciated by high inflation.

According to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, capital outflow at the end of the year is about $125 billion(taking into account the forecast for the 4th quarter) - will almost reach the volumes of the crisis year 2008. It is associated with uncertainty in the economy, the transition to a floating ruble exchange rate and the annexation of Crimea. Contrary to expectations, the sanctions as such did not have such a noticeable effect - capital outflow increased sharply only at the end of the year, and the main reason for this was the fall in oil prices.

By the beginning of 2012, the economy had fully recovered from the crisis. This was influenced not only by high oil and gas prices, but also by sound budget policy, which made it possible to execute the federal budget without a deficit in 2011 and begin to increase the volume of replenishment of the Reserve Fund, which increased the stability of the Russian economy to external negative economic factors. The first placement of sovereign Eurobonds denominated in rubles was carried out, which is evidence of increased confidence in the Russian national currency and the ongoing budget policy.

In order to reduce the negative consequences of the economic crisis, the Government of the Russian Federation has developed a number of areas of financial policy for the post-crisis period:

Increased efficiency budget system, reduction of budget expenditures and the budget network, strengthening control over the expenses of recipients of budget funds through the Federal Treasury system;

Improvement of the banking system;

Improving inter-budgetary relations and fiscal federalism;

Eliminating debts to the state and reducing the risk of non-payments;

Adoption of a set of measures to protect the rights of investors and entrepreneurs;

Creation of legislative conditions for attracting foreign investment.

The first half of 2013 saw a further slowdown in economic growth that began in 2012. Since the end of 2011, GDP growth in annual terms has decreased from 5 percent or more to 1.6% in the first quarter of 2013 and to 1.2% in the second quarter. Overall, in the first half of 2013, GDP growth was 1.4 percent.

Figure 2.1 - GDP dynamics for the period 2011-2013.

The weakening of the real exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar in January-August 2012, according to the Bank of Russia, was 5.8% compared to the corresponding period in 2011, and against the euro it strengthened by 3.1%. Real effective course The ruble against foreign currencies increased, according to the Bank of Russia, in January-August by 0.6% compared to the same period last year.

In 2012, the real effective exchange rate of the ruble will strengthen by 1.3 percent. By 2015, the real effective exchange rate of the ruble will depreciate by 0.8% as the current account surplus declines.

Whether there will be an economic crisis in Russia in the near future is the main question that worries society.

There are some underlying reasons why Russia could slide into an economic crisis within the foreseeable future.

According to the forecasts of numerous independent analysts, as well as experts from the Higher School of Economics, Russia may face another financial crisis in 2014. According to their arguments, such prerequisites were created in the country after the previous economic crisis, when Russia lost its investment attractiveness for a number of economic countries.

The first reason that made analysts talk about a possible crisis was government financial statistics updated in the summer of 2013. According to the latest data, Russia is experiencing a slowdown in economic growth, which is reducing its pace from month to month. The current coefficient in comparison with the same period of last 2012 is at just over one percent, which, among other things, may relate to the error of statistical data and in reality give a zero result.

At the consumer level, there is also a certain oversupply of loans, which has led to people resorting to new loans to pay off old ones. This, in turn, does not bring income to the country; moreover, the debt burden on ordinary people and individuals has reached enormous proportions, and it is possible that the country will soon face massive defaults associated with these loans.

It goes without saying that in such a situation there can be no talk of growth in consumer lending, and, consequently, the consumer basket. People will not be able to take out loans for purchases, trade turnover will increase, and the economy, again, will not benefit from this.

In addition, the pace of construction, the level of consumption of goods and services has noticeably decreased, and external demand for products exported by the country has fallen.

Despite the optimistic forecasts of the Russian Ministry economic development, most domestic and Western analysts are inclined to believe that the next financial crisis in Russia in 2014 is not prejudice, but a very real disappointing forecast for the near future. Recently, there has been a slowdown in the pace of development of the Russian economy, due to the fact that the oil and gas sector can no longer cope with the role of the “locomotive” of economic development.

The government of the country places great hopes on all kinds of innovative programs that should contribute to the development of entrepreneurial activity. Despite the fact that some experts consider talk of an impending financial crisis to be premature, it is worth recognizing that 2013 did not get off to a great start. Thus, due to increased insurance premiums in the country, more than three thousand entrepreneurs curtailed their business.

That is why the financial crisis in Russia in 2014 is quite expected, and many analysts say that the Russian economic model, tied to the sale of raw materials, has exhausted its potential. It's hard to do accurate predictions

in economics, given that they are built not only on the basis of analyzes of macroeconomic indicators. As a rule, the economic state of a country is also greatly influenced by politics, sociology and ecology. Derevshchikova E.O. Financial crisis of 2014-2015: consequences and prospects for Russia // International magazine social and humanities

. – 2016. – T. 2. No. 1. – pp. 25-28. IP FINANCIAL CRISIS 2014-2015

GG: CONSEQUENCES AND PROSPECTS FOR RUSSIA

With AI

E.O. Derevshchikova, student

Kuban State University

(Russia, Krasnodar) Annotation. The article examines the impact of the current financial crisis on the Russian economy. A sharp drop in oil prices, fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate, A volatile geopolitical situation in the world, anti-Russian sanctions that arose in the O volatile geopolitical situation in the world, anti-Russian sanctions that arose in the It was not the situation with Ukraine, and as one of its consequences, the lack of foreign investment that predetermined the current economic recession in Russia. The article analyzes the main consequences of the crisis for the state and individual sectors of the Russian economy.

Keywords: Russian economy, economic crisis, financial crisis, economic recession, sanctions, ruble collapse, anti-crisis measures.

It's no secret that the financial crisis of 2014 led to a deterioration in the economic situation in Russia. Etc And ranks of the escalated situation objects V we also mean economic sanctions, e money against Russia, and a sharp decline in prices for energy resources, the implementation of which with volatile geopolitical situation in the world, anti-Russian sanctions that arose in the constitutes a large part of all budget revenues of the country. Taken together, both external and internal factors etc And gave the crisis a famous exception b ness. Global financial crisis And led to an outflow of capital (foreign) outside the country, to a weakening of stock markets and problems in the interbank market, to complications with solvency volatile geopolitical situation in the world, anti-Russian sanctions that arose in the ity and liquidity, to rising inflation, to a significant decline in a number of industries in the Russian economy and to a decline in real incomes of the population of the Russian Federation.

Due to cardinal difficulties, St. I provided with access for small, medium and large Russian businesses to finance And ration, the investment programs of many companies are rapidly being limited m pany. Investment investment decreases And attractiveness of a number of industries. For export oriented business yes n This problem is intensified by the worsening foreign economic situation. Due to the fact that the demand for the products of such companies decreases, the intermediate demand for the products of other economic sectors also decreases. At the sametime, the volume of consumer lending is falling, and, therefore, limited And there is a growing demand for real estate and cars volatile geopolitical situation in the world, anti-Russian sanctions that arose in the beats of domestic production.

Imbalance of relations between the budget The article examines the impact of the current financial crisis on the Russian economy. A sharp drop in oil prices, fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate, we rely on changes in conditions, legal norms and attitudes among organizations The article examines the impact of the current financial crisis on the Russian economy. A sharp drop in oil prices, fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate, new authorities at all levels by decision in volatile geopolitical situation in the world, anti-Russian sanctions that arose in the issues related to disbandment, distribution and control financial resources, in addition, with redistributed And authority and corresponding response T responsibility for their use. These processes, unlike most other economic and managerial processes, are associated with projects, plans, schemes and program documentation. The federal budget deficit is gaining momentum, which determines the deepening of regional differentiation in terms of welfare I niya, as a result of which one can trace the weak influence of the federal center on the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Measures aimed at d maintaining the exchange rate, reducing to l legal obligations of our companies, varying the refinancing rate, investing resources in the domestic banking sector, helping the stock market and others, inevitably led to an instant decline in international prices. e of the country's reserves.

Some of the consequences of the crisis for the state are presented in the table 1.

Table 1. Consequences of the financial crisis of 2014-2015. for the Russian state t va

Analyzed aspect	Results
Banking system and sb e cutting of citizens	There has been a process of tightening banks' requirements for potential borrowers, an increase in interest rates on loans issued, and a reduction in many mortgage and consumer programs.
Industry and employment	Most enterprises in the country have felt the impact of finance volatile geopolitical situation in the world, anti-Russian sanctions that arose in the of the crisis, and especially those companies that export.
Ruble devaluation	The main purpose of the devaluation was to lower the prices of export goods and make imported goods more expensive. The negative thing here was the loss of confidence in Russia as a country forced to devalue its currency.
Land and real estate	Tracing patterns of changes in land and real estate prices And Most in the direction of decrease. It is worth noting that it was in this area that the crisis had a positive impact on Russia, ridding its market of And from the artificial increase in the cost of objects and e ceased rise in prices.

Table 2. Expected results from using the proposed scenario

Positive	Negative (risks)
The most qualified specialists remain on the market n efficient, effective and quickly adaptable emerging companies	Massive company bankruptcies and depletion e development of individual sectors of the economy
Reducing the cost of implementing government R significant impact on the country's economy	Rapid and deep decline in industry w lenience with further partial restoration but by innovation
Maintaining production levels at p e period of crisis to mitigate social problems volatile geopolitical situation in the world, anti-Russian sanctions that arose in the consequences and reduction of circulation costs e production for its subsequent With formation, as well as activation to about immediate demand	High level of requirement for competence T skills of state anti-crisis managers
Improving the production base volatile geopolitical situation in the world, anti-Russian sanctions that arose in the more important sectors of the economy and infra and structures	Risk of corruption in decisions taken e in the absence of proper transparency about th process

If you create a system of incentives for the formation of an economy with characteristic features, the proposed scenario will volatile geopolitical situation in the world, anti-Russian sanctions that arose in the allows you to survive the crisis with the leastlosses and come out of it with more profit positive economy.

The fight against inflation only with p volatile geopolitical situation in the world, anti-Russian sanctions that arose in the by the power of monetarist methods volatile geopolitical situation in the world, anti-Russian sanctions that arose in the leads to insufficient lending e national sector of the economy and industry n nogo production. The result of this And financial policy may become extinct volatile geopolitical situation in the world, anti-Russian sanctions that arose in the production growth and decline, import growth and dependence of the financial system e we are from foreign loans, local t volatile geopolitical situation in the world, anti-Russian sanctions that arose in the vars will be notin demand in the demand market.

The financial crisis, as we know, And melt into a cardinal situation and instantly n significant reduction in the value of organizations and/or global financial assets. The complexity of building a financial system e we are defined by a number of problems, n The article examines the impact of the current financial crisis on the Russian economy. A sharp drop in oil prices, fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate, example, such as, all kinds of currencies T financial collapses, bank failures, difficulty managing liquid assets And you, as well as sovereign defaults.

The relationship between strategic actions and anti-crisis measures of the government remains T This is an important point, as well as their differentiation.

And only timely prepared and implemented measures will allow us to overcome volatile geopolitical situation in the world, anti-Russian sanctions that arose in the overcome the consequences of the global financial crisis and minimize losses in the economic and social spheres.

Bibliography

1. Website "Federal State Statistics Service"[Electronic resource]. - Access mode: http://www.gks.ru/

2. Website "Central Bank of the Russian Federation"[Electronic resource].- Access mode: http://www.cbr.ru/

3. Berdnikova L.F., Fatkullina E.R. Financial crisis 2014-2015 and its influence on Russia // Young scientist.– 2015. – No. 11.3. – P. 10-13.

FINANCIAL CRISIS 2014-2015: CONSEQUENCES AND PROSPECTS

FOR RUSSIA

E.O. Derevchikova, student

Kuban state university

(Russia, Krasnodar)

Abstract. The paper examines the impact of the current financial crisis on the Russian eco n omy. A sharp drop in oil prices, the ruble exchange rate fluctuations, unstable geopolitical situation a tion in the world, anti-Russian sanctions, appeared on the background of the situation with Ukraine , and as one of its consequences, lack of foreign investment in Russia determined the current situation of the Russian economy recession. The article analyzes the main effects of the crisis for the state and the individual sectors of the Russian economy. We consider the immediate prospects for the development and identified the optimal scenario of events for the optimal exit of Russia from the crisis.

Keywords: Russian economy, the economic crisis, the financial crisis, economic decline, sanctions, the collapse of the ruble, the anti-crisis measures.

Global economic crisis of 2014-2015

Global financial crisis of 2014-2015:

Many believed that the crisis that occurred in 2014 was a continuation of the same crisis of 2008. But we can say that in 2014 the world economy suffered a new economic crisis. The fact is that after the past crisis, the economy did not stabilize, and many destabilizing factors remained that undermined the economic system again. These factors include:

Numerous conflicts arising from ethnic hatred. Moreover, this can be said both about Europe (clashes between the indigenous population and citizens professing Islam) and about the United States, where clashes between African Americans and government officials continue.

The past crisis provoked not only a weakening of the economic system as a whole, but also accelerated the stratification of the population into classes of the poor and wealthy in financially citizens. The increase in the number of unemployed and poor citizens led to a drop in demand for various goods and services. Hence the decline in production growth and the reduction in the volume of taxes received by the budget.

Events that can be classified as geopolitical, the redistribution of power in Syria and Iraq, as well as the Ukrainian conflict cannot but influence the economic situation.

An unreasonably “inflated” stock market, which practically represents a “soap bubble”. Many analysts agree that prices on the stock market are biasedly high and if we bring them to real value, then a price drop of up to 35% will probably lead to a stock market collapse.

A growing crisis in the energy industry that will lead to economic imbalance in many countries. It is connected with the fact that a number of oil-producing countries deliberately underestimate the cost of oil.

International rating agencies continue to downgrade countries' credit ratings; assigning a BBB (not reliable) rating has already become the norm. Based on the indicators of rating agencies, we can say that most corporations and concerns are on the verge of bankruptcy.

Forecasts for 2014-2015 for the USA.

Today, in the United States, as well as throughout the world, inflation is rising, and the economic sector is unstable. America's biggest problem is demographic decline. Indigenous people is aging catastrophically; in fact, the demographics are ensured only by emigrants. It was they who at one time provided the volume of labor needed for production in the United States. Now the situation has changed. This problem will definitely affect the state of the economy as a whole.

It should be noted that in the country about 25% of the population is officially considered unemployed. In the USA, people with entire families live on benefits, while they don’t work anywhere, they just live the state budget. In addition, it was in 2014-2015 that a significant part of the population, affected by the previous crisis, was forced to turn to this type of service as free food.

But the situation in the US is not so bleak. The thing is that the countries of the world community have nevertheless learned lessons from previous events and today are making every effort to overcome their instability.

Forecasts for 2014-2015 for Europe.

Financial instability in the United States, which became the starting point for the global crisis of 2008, had a strong impact on the state of the economy European countries. In 2014, the countries of the Old World were still reeling from financial turmoil.

In Europe, dissatisfaction with the actions of political leaders on the part of both local and visiting populations is growing. It's about about national discord between the indigenous population of the countries and representatives of the Islamic world who emigrated to Western European countries. This factor cannot in any way contribute to the stabilization of the European economy.

In the person of emigrants, Europe received a large amount of cheap labor, thereby depriving the working population of their countries of the opportunity to earn a livelihood. In addition, the influx of emigrants increased the burden on the social base of the countries, which was already experiencing a budget deficit.

To conclude, we can conclude that there can be a great many reasons for crises, from natural phenomena, to typical human errors. History knows three major global financial crises: 2008, 2011, 2014. And all these crises arose from mistakes or shortcomings of economists and people related to economics. The 2008 crisis occurred due to the mistakes of Credit brokers, the 2011 crisis due to the panic of investors to lose their investments, they began to actively sell shares, which led to agflation, the 2014-2015 crisis due to the fall of the currency exchange rate and the loss of the credit rating. All known crises began due to the shortcomings of economic figures and lack of time to rehabilitate the economy after the last crisis. There is only one benefit of a crisis, and that is that people gain experience from what they have gone through and learn from their mistakes, not making them again. After all, past crises are called past because they were eliminated completely or partially. So what measures have been taken by economists and the government to end the crisis situation in the country and throughout the world?

The main method of dealing with the crisis was to stimulate supply and demand, regulate the exchange rate of the national currency, and support large, small and medium-sized businesses. During the great crisis of the 21st century, the 2008 crisis, economists began to buy securities and shares. Real estate began to lose value due to the collapse of mortgage lending

Example of control methods Russian Federation with the crisis. Analysts estimate the amount of spending directed by the Russian government to combat the crisis at a level approaching $200 billion.

The Government of the Russian Federation has allocated 175 billion rubles for the purchase of shares and securities, and everything that is happening now on the securities market only means that a significant amount of these funds has already been spent. The Bank of Russia provides significant liquidity injections on a daily basis through operations on the repo market.

The price of Brent oil has dropped below $50 per barrel; this has not happened since May 2005. In turn, this further weakens the treasury amid the crisis, which is so necessary in order to mitigate or smooth out the consequences of the global crisis of 2008 and the impact of the crisis in Russia on the economy.

According to market analysts, if the government stops investing in the purchase of securities, this will lead to a more significant drop in the market. All the government's actions, unfortunately, did not lead to the desired results, but made it possible to reduce the outflow of capital from the country.

As mentioned earlier, the total costs of overcoming the crisis in Russia amounted to about 200 billion US dollars, almost 14% of the gross domestic product (GDP).

Of course, expert estimates vary, but everyone agrees on one thing - this is not the limit, this is just the beginning, as Dmitry Medvedev said about 5 trillion rubles will be spent on fighting the financial crisis in Russia, and this figure is not final.

To these conclusions we can add the initiative proclaimed at the United Russia congress by V.V. Putin to reduce income tax by four percentage points. Also at the congress of the United Russia party, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin already announced measures to reduce taxes. It is interesting that the government took this step after data on the growth of petroleum product reserves in the United States were published, this suggests that the price of oil will still fall. According to experts, it will fall below $50, and if American economy does not begin to recover in the near future, then it will fall below $40 next spring.

Having observed the financial crisis, currency races, radically opposing opinions and expert advice over the past months, there is a desire to conduct comparative analysis prices in 2007 and 2008. So the consumer price index for September 2008, relative to September 2007, according to official statistics, amounted to 24.6% (for food - 33.5%).

Main measures taken to combat the 2014 crisis.

The anti-crisis plan takes into account not only the measures proposed by line ministries, but also proposals to support small and medium-sized businesses, the implementation of which is considered a priority by the head of the Ministry of Economy, Alexey Ulyukaev, says a government official. The government estimated their positive effect on the economy at 1,327 billion rubles, say officials familiar with the content of the liberalization measures included in the plan.

One of the most pleasant proposals for business is to increase the criteria for classification as a small business. Enterprises that are considered large will be able to move into the category of medium-sized ones (revenue volume up to 5 billion rubles instead of 1 billion), medium ones - to become small (up to 1 billion rubles instead of 400 million), small - micro enterprises (up to 200 million RUB versus 60 million). This will allow businesses to qualify for broader benefits than before.

The Ministry of Economic Development proposes to temporarily exempt small enterprises, including newly created ones, from inspections through a moratorium - until the introduction of a new risk-based approach. According to officials, they will also be able to take advantage of expanded access to government procurement and new measures to support innovative enterprises. It is also proposed to reduce antimonopoly control for the “kids”.

The Ministry of Economic Development offers a wide range of tax breaks to small businesses. One of them is reducing the burden on the single tax on imputed income (UTII) and the cost of a patent by reducing special deflator coefficients to 1 versus 1.8 for UTII and 1.2 for a patent.

In addition, it is proposed to cancel the obligation of “kids” to pay the property tax imposed on them this year in addition to the simplified system and UTII. It is also proposed to expand the “simplified code” itself, allowing its use by organizations with an income of up to 250 million rubles. (currently the limit is 60 million rubles). And regions may additionally be given the opportunity to reduce the simplified tax rate to 1% (now 6%) and UTII - to 7.5% (now 15%).

One of the most significant laws of 2014 that increases the burden on business, the so-called municipal or trade fees, is proposed to be frozen until January 1, 2017. So far, only Moscow is going to introduce fees, but this has caused a negative response, so suspending them during a crisis will give business a good signal about the authorities’ intentions, the authors of the proposals hope.

Most of these ideas emerged from the anti-crisis package of Opora Russia, says Aleksey Nebolsin, a member of the organization’s board, who supports them. The measures were collected from businesses at various meetings, confirms the chairman of the tax committee “ Business Russia» Marina Zaikova. “But these are targeted measures, and now only drastic things will work. For example, for domestic producers, a reduction in VAT to 12% will be a serious signal,” she notes.

To conclude, we can say that the most important and at the same time the most difficult method of combating the crisis is the allocation of huge amounts of funds from the budget. Stimulating business, agriculture and the banking system is also the most important criterion for overcoming the crisis. After all, maintaining the economy at a stable level requires significant funds. And the amounts allocated by states different countries sometimes reaches a large percentage of GDP. As you can understand from this, the crisis is hitting the budget hard and economic system states.

The harbingers of the crisis in 2013 were the long-awaited slowdown in price growth (to 6.1% per year) with an increase in the unemployment rate (to 5.3%) and a fall in real disposable income (by 1.3% per year).

Crisis 2013 in Russia

on kickbacks

The fundamental cause of the crisis is the diminishing impact of monetary stimulus on the economy. Previously, the goal was to double GDP through a constant increase in the money supply. To put it simply, a double rise in prices can be fought through a double increase in wages. Over time, this policy became less and less effective: businesses began to operate on kickbacks, and every fifth person learned to steal. Kickbacks are a percentage of money received in a business for the purpose of continuing the business. Brief essence This farming method is presented in the video:

It is good for the economy when it complements and does not change it. IN large companies the desire to get a kickback leads to the fact that decision makers give preference to unprofitable partners over profitable ones. The crisis in Russia stems from the fact that kickbacks that accumulate in bank accounts sometimes exceed all other expenses that contribute to economic growth. A natural consequence of the rollback method of doing business was the slowdown in growth industrial production up to 0.1% and a fall in investment in buildings, structures and others by 1.6% per year.

Declining competition in Russia

The consolidation of retail trade to the level of hypermarkets has led to the disappearance of competition and a decline in product quality. has emerged in all spheres of the economy, including fair trade. Competition for the consumer has been replaced by competition for the patron, bringing the economy closer to the dashing nineties. There were so many low-quality products that it brought down the overall level of inflation, but spurred an increase in the prices of the highest quality goods and services. In this situation, there is no point in trying to give people money, since they will not work to increase the gross internal product. Rational behavior - transferring money abroad to pay for higher quality purchases. In the first nine months, capital outflows amounted to $48.3 billion. In the Soviet Union, supply was stimulated by the introduction of efficient agricultural methods:
In Russia, intensive agriculture is traditionally associated with foreign technology, which will become more expensive as the ruble depreciates. There is no hope for Belarusian agricultural engineering yet. *** In 2013, all the prerequisites for a crisis in Russia took shape, the main ones being business on kickbacks and a drop in competition. The economy stopped growing naturally. The Ministry of Economic Development's forecast for Russia's GDP growth for the year is 1.8%. The graph of Russia’s GDP clearly shows that it will be difficult to reach even 1.8%:
In order to avoid catastrophic consequences, it required periodic freezes of tariffs for the services of natural monopolies and wages.

Crisis 2014 in Russia

Economic effect of the Olympics in Sochi

The fight against the crisis has taken away part of the stimulus from the Russian economy, which will return with the end of freezing tariffs for housing and communal services and salaries of public sector employees. As a result, when switching to new model economic development will have to increase external . In 2014, Russia will face another crisis related to the Olympics in Sochi. The main reason is that the Olympics, like any artificial stimulus, creates addiction. The state, together with some construction companies and business in general, contributed to the Sochi Games budget in the amount of 1.5 trillion rubles, casting doubt on their costs economic effect from the event, which was estimated at a third of this amount.
Surviving Sochi for Russia is a doubly challenge, because the Olympics have a clear geographic connection to the Krasnodar Territory. No one argues that at first the Games will have a positive impact on the structure of the population and its income, but after them the local population will have to return to their previous structure and level of well-being. It should be clarified that the 2014 crisis will be accompanied by purchases of foreign currency and sales of the ruble. This threatens to undermine the stability of the currency system and greatly increase business purchasing imported equipment. We can predict an intensification of crisis trends in industry and a slowdown in Russian GDP growth to 1%, despite the Olympics.